jeudi 27 septembre 2018

Climactualités - septembre 2018



ENSO
Le 27/09/2018 : climate.gov/enso

Temperature, winds, and cloudiness across the tropical Pacific were mostly neutral in August 2018, but they gave hints that support model forecasts of a transition to El Niño by later this fall (50-55% chance) or winter (65-70% chance). Below the ocean surface, a wave of warm water was spreading eastward, boosted by periods of weak trade winds.

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GISS L-OTI anomalies de températures vs 1951-1980 
Le 27/09/2018 : data.giss.nasa.gov
Note: Gray areas signify missing data.
Note: Ocean data are not used over land nor within 100km of a reporting land station.

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Coral Reef Watch
Le 27/09/2018 : coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
NOAA Coral Reef Watch's most recent Four-Month Coral Bleaching Heat Stress Outlook is below. This figure shows the distribution of the lowest heat stress levels predicted by at least 60% of the model ensemble members. In other words, there is a 60% chance that the displayed heat stress levels will occur.

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Climate Prediction Center
Le 27/09/2018 : cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Prévisions de tempêtes tropicales.

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Polar Science Center
Le 27/09/2018 : psc.apl.uw.edu
Average Arctic sea ice volume in August 2018 was 6200 km3. This value is the 6th lowest on record about 1200 km3 above the August record that was set in 2012 with ~5,000 km3 . Ice volume was 66% below the maximum in 1979 and 50% below the mean value for 1979-2017. August 2018 ice volume falls just a notch above the long term trend line.


Fig.1  Arctic sea ice volume anomaly from PIOMAS updated once a month. Daily Sea Ice volume anomalies for each day are computed relative to the 1979 to 2017 average for that day of the year. Tickmarks on time axis refer to 1st day of year. The trend for the period 1979- present  is shown in blue. Shaded areas show one and two standard deviations from the trend. Error bars indicate the uncertainty of the  monthly anomaly plotted once per year.

Fig. 2 Total Arctic sea ice volume from PIOMAS showing the volume of the mean annual cycle, and from 2010-2018. Shaded areas indicate one and two standard deviations from the mean.

Fig.3 Monthly Sea Ice Volume from PIOMAS for April and Sep.

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Arctic Data archive system (ADS)
Le 27/09/2018 : ads.nipr.ac.jp

Arctique.

Antarctique.



Historique des Climactualités (l'Arctique est mentionné en premier ; en bleu les valeurs minimales, en jaune les maximales)


Septembre 2018 : 4,68 + 18,01 = 22,69
Août 2018 : 4,8 + 17,7 = 22,5
Juillet 2018 : 6.67 + 16.44 = 23.11
Juin 2018 : 9.19 + 14.59 = 23.78
Mai 2018 : 11.02 + 10.65 = 21.67
Avril 2018 : 12.82 + 6.33 = 18.15
Mars 2018 : 13.87 + 3.50 = 17.37
Février 2018 : 13.68 + 2.31 = 15.99
Janvier 2018 : 12.68 + 3.46 = 16.14
Décembre 2017 : 11.76 + 7.13 = 18.89
Novembre 2017 : 10.07 + 13.25 = 23.32
Octobre 2017 : 7.82 + 17.27 = 25.09
Septembre 2017 : pas de stats

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Quelques idées de trucages de courbes à l'attention de Benoit Rittaud (je sais qu'il en fera bon usage)

L'évolution de l'homme en quatre dessins (pour changer du singe qui se redresse)
L'Histoire a tendance à se répéter (et non, l'homme n'apprend pas de ses erreurs)

Est-ce la télévision qui rend bête ? Ou bien…

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